evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic

Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic ...

Oct 08, 2019  10%  It is common in ensemble-based methods of history matching to evaluate the adequacy of the initial ensemble of models through visual comparison between actual observations and data predictions prior to data assimilation. If the model is appropriate, then the observed data should look plausible when compared to the distribution of realizations of simulated data.

get price

[PDF] Evaluating prior predictions of production and ...

It is common in ensemble-based methods of history matching to evaluate the adequacy of the initial ensemble of models through visual comparison between actual observations and data predictions prior to data assimilation. If the model is appropriate, then the observed data should look plausible when compared to the distribution of realizations of simulated data.

get price

4DSEIS - Publications

Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data. Proposes a methodology for determining the suitability of a computer model before calibration, targeted at real data assimilation problems with large numbers of model parameters, large amounts of data and correlated observation errors.

get price

Two Methods for Evaluating Seismic Safety

Seismic margin assessments focus on evaluating High Confidence Low Probability Failure (HCLPF) capacities. These are defined as the level of earthquake ground motion at which there is a 95% confidence of an at most 5% probability of failure. [2] Each SSC receives an HCLPF capacity.

get price

Seismic monitoring of oil production: A feasibility study

the associated seismic responses at three production-time snapshots: prior to any oil pro-duction (Base Survey), after 56 days (Monitor 1), and after 113 days (Monitor 2) of oil production. Multi-offset seismic surveys are simulated for each of these three production times.

get price

The science of earthquake prediction – explained World ...

Jul 05, 2021  The science of earthquake prediction – explained. Every year, earthquakes cause massive devastation and thousands of deaths, and yet we are still a long way from being able to predict when they will occur. Recent quakes in central Italy are another reminder of how suddenly and unexpectedly they can strike. It’s not just predicting whether ...

get price

4DSEIS - Publications

Evaluating prior predictions of production and seismic data. Proposes a methodology for determining the suitability of a computer model before calibration, targeted at real data assimilation problems with large numbers of model parameters, large amounts of

get price

Seismic monitoring of oil production: A feasibility study

the associated seismic responses at three production-time snapshots: prior to any oil pro-duction (Base Survey), after 56 days (Monitor 1), and after 113 days (Monitor 2) of oil production. Multi-offset seismic surveys are simulated for each of these three production times.

get price

Bayesian inversion of time-lapse seismic data for porosity ...

lapse seismic conditioning data in the reservoir fluid flow simulator, in order to assess the predictions of dynamic property changes (in particular hydrocarbon saturations and pressure changes), compared to the pre-production static model and initial conditions (see Landrø (2001), and Landrø et al. (2003)).

get price

Analysis of time-lapse seismic and production data for ...

6.3. 4D seismic and production data analysis for permeability distribution estimate. By categorising the fluid-flow models in the ensemble regarding their consistency between seismic and production data, our methodology offers a systematic approach to an often overwhelming task.

get price

SCALE-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER FOR

both 4-D seismic and production data. INTRODUCTION Evaluation and prediction of the properties of a petroleum reservoir, such as permeability, hydrocarbon saturation and porosity, based on production history, well-logs and seismic data, implies solving a complex, ill-posed and non-linear inverse problem. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a

get price

Prediction of intensity and location of seismic events ...

Apr 01, 2021  Asim et al. (2018b) proposed a binary ensemble classifier with the aim to generate temporal prediction for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and greater, 15 days prior to an earthquake. The accuracy of the proposed model for the central zone of Chile was about 85.7% slightly better than that obtained by Reyes et al. (2013) of 83.5% for the same area ...

get price

A Comparative Review of Rippability Factors and ...

Furthermore, the seismic refraction takes advantage of a common occurrence, whereby seismic velocities increase as a function of depth (Wightman et al., 2003). As a result of this assumption, a less competent, lower-velocity layer overlain by a thin, dense layer cannot be identified and characterized by the seismic refraction.

get price

Geomechanical Rock Properties Prediction from Seismic Data ...

Jun 22, 2021  Geomechanical Rock Properties Prediction from Seismic Data. A case study in the Delaware Basin shows how a machine learning process translated prestack seismic inversion attributes to meaningful rock properties in the Wolfcamp interval. Tricon uses Vanguard software for reservoir imaging. This approach is deterministic in that it assumes the ...

get price

4D Seismic Survey Planning Design Schlumberger

Presurvey evaluation and design studies are critical in determining 4D survey acquisition, processing, and inversion parameters. The goal of successful 4D studies is to increase production and cost savings through better planning of production and injection wells and

get price

Predicting the distribution of reservoirs by applying the ...

Seismic data structure characteristics means the waveform character arranged in the time sequence at discrete data points in each 2-D or 3-D seismic trace. Hydrocarbon prediction using seismic data structure characteristics is a new reservoir prediction technique. When the main pay interval is in carbonate fracture and fissure-cavern type reservoirs with very strong inhomogeneity, there are ...

get price

Single Well Productivity Prediction Model for Fracture ...

Jul 08, 2021  Single well productivity is an important index of oilfield production planning and economic evaluation. Due to fracture-vuggy reservoirs being characteristically strongly heterogeneous and having complex fluid distribution, the commonly used single well productivity prediction methods for fracture-vuggy reservoirs have many problems, such as difficulty in obtaining reservoir parameters and ...

get price

Evaluation of inter-well connectivity using well ...

Sep 01, 2016  The Capacitance Model approach for interwell evaluation is selected initially to obtain prior understanding using well production and injection fluctuations. Then, to make proper use of 4D seismic data, we extend the newly developed “well2seis” technique to further predict the well-to-reservoir connectivity by correlating multiple seismic ...

get price

[PDF] Simulating migrated and inverted seismic data by ...

The simulation of migrated and inverted data is hampered by the high computational cost of generating 3D synthetic data, followed by processes of migration and inversion. For example, simulating the migrated seismic signature of subtle stratigraphic traps demands the expensive exercise of 3D forward modeling, followed by 3D migration of the synthetic seismograms.

get price

Uncertainty in Production Forecasts Based on Well ...

Dec 01, 2001  A stochastic model in a Bayesian setting, conditioned on well observations, seismic amplitude data and production history, is defined. Samples of reservoir characteristics and production forecasts from the posterior model are used to evaluate the impact of various observation types.

get price

4D Seismic Survey Planning Design Schlumberger

Presurvey evaluation and design studies are critical in determining 4D survey acquisition, processing, and inversion parameters. The goal of successful 4D studies is to increase production and cost savings through better planning of production and injection wells and

get price

A Comparative Review of Rippability Factors and ...

Furthermore, the seismic refraction takes advantage of a common occurrence, whereby seismic velocities increase as a function of depth (Wightman et al., 2003). As a result of this assumption, a less competent, lower-velocity layer overlain by a thin, dense layer cannot be identified and characterized by the seismic refraction.

get price

Geomechanical Rock Properties Prediction from Seismic Data ...

Jun 22, 2021  Geomechanical Rock Properties Prediction from Seismic Data. A case study in the Delaware Basin shows how a machine learning process translated prestack seismic inversion attributes to meaningful rock properties in the Wolfcamp interval. Tricon uses Vanguard software for reservoir imaging. This approach is deterministic in that it assumes the ...

get price

Uncertainty in Production Forecasts Based on Well ...

Dec 01, 2001  A stochastic model in a Bayesian setting, conditioned on well observations, seismic amplitude data and production history, is defined. Samples of reservoir characteristics and production forecasts from the posterior model are used to evaluate the impact of various observation types.

get price

WELL-SEISMIC INTEGRATION TO PORE PRESSURE PREDICTION

comprises the interpretation of seismic data and the definition of a range of interest required to evaluate the abnormal pressure zone, and is executed by the interpreter. For better results and usability, a 3D pore pressure model is necessary, so the third step is generating a three-dimensional velocity cube from 2D seismic

get price

Prediction of Oil Production With Confidence Intervals

incorporates prior knowledge (for example from geostatistics or seismic data) into the prediction. We show that a history match to past production rates improves prediction significantly. The plan of this paper is to pick one fine grid reservoir from an ensemble and regard its solution as a stand in for production data. Other reservoirs in the ...

get price

(PDF) Calibrated Predrill Pore Pressure Prediction from 3D ...

Abstract In order to optimize drilling operations in the Cocuite field in the Veracruz basin, Mexico, seismic velocities from a threedimensional (3D) seismic survey were used to predict pore pressure. The accuracy of the seismic velocities was

get price

Single Well Productivity Prediction Model for Fracture ...

Jul 08, 2021  Single well productivity is an important index of oilfield production planning and economic evaluation. Due to fracture-vuggy reservoirs being characteristically strongly heterogeneous and having complex fluid distribution, the commonly used single well productivity prediction methods for fracture-vuggy reservoirs have many problems, such as difficulty in obtaining reservoir parameters and ...

get price

[PDF] Simulating migrated and inverted seismic data by ...

The simulation of migrated and inverted data is hampered by the high computational cost of generating 3D synthetic data, followed by processes of migration and inversion. For example, simulating the migrated seismic signature of subtle stratigraphic traps demands the expensive exercise of 3D forward modeling, followed by 3D migration of the synthetic seismograms.

get price

Why Earthquakes Are So Difficult To Predict

Nov 04, 2019  The provincial Earthquake Office made a prediction that another magnitude 5.0 earthquake would arrive by Jan. 5. That magnitude 5.0 never happened and 600 workers failed to show up for work at a petroleum production field due to the false alarm. But a few weeks later, starting on Feb. 1, the area started rumbling in earnest.

get price

Practical limitations of earthquake early warning - David ...

Apr 12, 2020  Abstract. Earthquake early warning (EEW) entails detection of initial earthquake shaking and rapid estimation and notification to users prior to imminent, stronger shaking. EEW (ShakeAlert Phase 1, version 2.0) went operational in California in October 2019

get price

New USGS Maps Identify Potential Ground-Shaking Hazards in ...

Mar 01, 2017  New USGS maps identify potential ground-shaking hazards in 2017 from both human-induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S. Damage to buildings in Cushing, Oklahoma from the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on November 6, 2016. Unreinforced brick and stone masonry buildings and facades are vulnerable to strong shaking.

get price

Evaluation of Phenomena Preceding Earthquakes and ...

Sep 05, 2019  The focus of this study is to review such statistical evaluation. The aspects considered in this study include seismicity, crustal deformation, slow slip, crustal fluids, crustal properties, electromagnetic phenomena, and animal behaviors. The lead times range from minutes to a few decades. The magnitude of the earthquake-preceding tendency can ...

get price

Holistic strategies for prediction uncertainty ...

It is demonstrated in the pre-field data assessment step in both the uranium remediation and reservoir prediction application. Secondly, a model scenario falsification method using spatial data, such as time lapse seismic data, is demonstrated. This method is also used to evaluate appropriate distance measures for distance based sensitivity ...

get price